By: Daryl Montgomery
Once again Greece has avoided a messy default and once again its creditors have had to take a greater loss on their loans and once again standards had to be abandoned to make the deal go through. And once again, we’re not done yet.
Realistically, Greece is actually undergoing a messy default; it’s just doing it in slow motion. When creditors are not fully paid, there is a default. The original default terms ...
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By: Daryl Montgomery
As the situation in Greece deteriorates further, Moody’s announced today that it intended to downgrade 114 European financial institutions and 17 global banks. Hopes that China will buy up EU sovereign debt to help prop up the faltering eurozone may wind up costing the U.S. more than it does China.
The hostility between Greece and the EU/IMF/ECB bailout troika is palpable. Nevertheless, there are claims that a deal should be reached by Monday. Whether the ...
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Repeating cycles and the historically oft repeated government responses to them provide us with a lot of information about what can happen in the markets during the next ten years.
Just like everything else, the cycles will behave as they have in the past because the Read On →
By: Daryl Montgomery
No government is of course going to admit that it is going to default.
If it did, no one would purchase its bonds and this would cause an immediate default. It is not surprising that the Greek government is denying the obvious,
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By: Daryl Montgomery
Like the U.S., the EU has run out of borrowing power, so debt without money printing is no longer an option.
Weaker economies mean more downgrades from the ratings agencies can be expectedand worse-default
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By: Daryl Montgomery
The Greek bailout deal is once again falling apart. Whether or not it is patched together another time, the end will inevitably be an ugly default.
On Thursday, news sources around the world were trumpeting that the EU and Greece had come to terms that would allow Greece to receive a 130 billion euro bailout payment that would prevent the country from defaulting by March. But late in the day, EU finance ministers ...
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By: Daryl Montgomery
Investors make the most consistent money by following bigger trends and going long in uptrends or shorting into downtrends. Longer term trends are not unidirectional however, but subject to either sharp or intermediate term reversals. At those points, it is best to get out of the market until the uptrend or downtrend resumes. Of course all trends eventually come to an end and it is important to recognize this when it happens and to ...
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By: Daryl Montgomery
The current debt crisis that is now impacting the entire Euro-Zone started in Greece in late 2009. The problems there have yet to be fixed despite numerous mainstream media reports to the contrary in the last two years.
The EU’s debt crisis is not getting resolved because it is no more possible to solve a debt crisis with more debt than it is to sober up a drunk by giving him more alcohol.
By: Daryl Montgomery
1. Problems in Greece and Europe are still impacting the market negatively with the seeming never ending on again, off-again possible bailout and a market that will stay erratic.
2. FYI – Sideways trading (also known a basing) shouldn’t surprise Investors. It is the norm and not the exception. Most of the time markets are trendless and you need to be a short-term trader and willing to enter and exit your positions quickly ...
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The U.S. has understated its inflation rate since 1983.
Inflation has not been below 5% in the 1990′s and 2000′s.
Fed claims there is no inflation.
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